U.S. President Joe Biden has made a sensational statement that he is ready to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the truth is since Biden puts forward unacceptable conditions for the Kremlin, the words about peace talks are just a figure of speech.
The Kremlin has not yet solved its security problem, and it is to the White House's advantage that the hostilities will continue. Therefore, neither the White House nor the Kremlin is ready for negotiations yet.
Be Prepared!
Every major media outlet in the world quoted Joe Biden saying he was ready to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden announced his readiness for negotiations at a joint press briefing with French President Emmanuel Macron. But is it true that Biden is ready? Or is it just a figure of speech?
“I’m prepared to speak with Mr. Putin if in fact there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war. He hasn’t done that yet. If that’s the case, in consultation with my French and my NATO friends, I’ll be happy to sit down with Putin to see what he has in mind,” the U.S. president said.
“There’s one way for this war to end — the rational way. Putin to pull out of Ukraine, number one. But it appears he’s not,” said Joe Biden.
Politico correspondent Eli Stokols, a member of the White House journalist pool, commented on Biden's tweet about his willingness to talk to Putin: "He's just miscalculated across the board. The question is: how does he get himself out of the situation he's gotten himself in? Says he will only talk with Putin “in concert with [his] NATO allies,” not unilaterally.”
No Subject for Discussion
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Biden's escapade on Friday, December 2, once again saying that Vladimir Putin is ready for negotiations, but that the conditions that Joe Biden puts forward are unacceptable to the Kremlin.
“He said that, first of all, Putin must leave Ukraine. He believes this is and should be a demonstration that Putin is willing to negotiate... The United States still does not recognize the new territories as part of the Russian Federation. Of course, this makes it very difficult to find some kind of mutual ground. Soil that is possible for mutual discussion,” Peskov said on air of Kommersant FM radio station.
At the same time, according to Peskov, the Kremlin continues its line of behavior: let’s separate fighting in Ukraine and negotiations.
“The special military operation continues. At the same time, President Putin remains open to negotiations,” said Peskov.
Confrontation Must go on
So, what do Joe Biden's words about negotiations mean and how should they be understood? We know from both the conflict studies course and the practical course of negotiations that if the parties want to reach an agreement, they begin with the points on which a compromise is most likely. That is, they bring their positions closer. If they do not want to agree, they take on confrontational themes, or simply ignore one another's interests which is what we are seeing in this case. Biden is proposing obviously unacceptable demands for the Kremlin. To be more precise, “to withdraw from Ukraine” means, among other things, to withdraw from Crimea, which Washington officially considers being Ukrainian.
Recall that exactly one year ago, the Kremlin initiated a negotiation process with the White House over Russian security issues. The fact is that since 2015, NATO has carried out extensive work on the “military development” of Ukraine, reforming the army and training the AFU personnel, providing intelligence and satellite communications, and implementing dozens of other programs to militarize Ukraine.
As a consequence, NATO came close to the border of the Russian Federation. The length of the border between Ukraine and Russia is about 2,000 km. At the same time, Ukraine itself is not a member of NATO, that is, formally, there are no troops of the North Atlantic Alliance in this country.
However, this is in theory, and in practice Vladimir Putin made it clear that the Kremlin is very concerned about the fact that the flight time of hypersonic missiles to Moscow was reduced to 5 minutes. On December 21, 2021, at an expanded board of the Defense Ministry, Vladimir Putin explicitly stated that the minimum flight time is a serious challenge.
“If this infrastructure moves forward, if U.S. and NATO missile systems appear in Ukraine, their flight time to Moscow will be reduced to seven to ten minutes, and if hypersonic weapons are deployed, to five,” said the Russian President.
As known, Russia failed to reach an agreement with the U.S. on security issues. Before the negotiations were even completed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov promised the United States and NATO a “military-technical response.” What kind of answer this would be became clear in the early morning of February 24.
No Negotiations, but Contacts Continue
So, the fighting in Ukraine will continue, the key players-the White House and the Kremlin-demonstrate such different positions that it is not even a question of negotiating at this point. Although both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin signal in public that they are willing to negotiate. So, it is possible to come to an agreement, but it is impossible to reach one.
Political analyst Stanislav Byshok notes in his commentary for https://lenta.ru/ that Washington, Kiev and Moscow have opposing positions, but at the same time, in his opinion, none of the parties exclude the possibility of negotiations.
“Russia says that all the goals of the EWS will be met. Ukraine says it will not stop until it reaches the 1991 borders. The U.S. says it is ready to support Ukraine as long as it continues fighting, but everyone does not mind just talking,” he said.
“It is difficult to give predictions about the Kremlin's agreement or disagreement to go to talks with Biden. But since we know that contacts between Russian and U.S. security officials at the highest level have continued, and a channel of communication is open, I believe that neither side will rule out the question of negotiations,” said Byshok.
Political analyst Sergei Markelov*, for his part, in a comment for https://360tv.ru/, deciphered Biden's words and the Kremlin's response in the sense that Washington and Moscow are signaling to each other that they are ready to negotiate.
“It's such ping-pong, a flip-flopping of information from one to the other. Each of the countries and each of the leaders says, as it were, that we are ready, but the world is not ready <...>,” said the political analyst.
“There is a struggle for signs. There is a transfer of responsibility from one to the other. Some part of the public believes Biden, some part believes the Chinese, some part believes Russia and President Putin,” said Markelov.
At the same time, former CIA chief General David Petraeus said in an interview with the German magazine Der Tagesspiegel that the conflict in Ukraine will definitely end through negotiations, but it is too early to resume the negotiation process, because neither Vladimir Putin nor Vladimir Zelensky are ready for it. When the right moment comes, then, according to Petraeus, the US, the EU, the UK and other countries will help organize the negotiation process.
* Sergei Markelov was included by the Ministry of Justice in the register of foreign mass media performing the functions of a foreign agent