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Midterm elections to the House of Representatives, the Senate and state governors are being held in the U.S. The votes are still being counted, the Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck, and every mandate is counted, so it is not known to the end what the final score will be.
On the other hand, it can be already said that little will change for Russia if the Democrats change their majority to Republicans in the House of Representatives.
On Equator of Presidential Term
The elections are called midterm elections, but, in fact, they are full-fledged elections for the lower house, the House of Representatives. They are called interim elections in the United States because they are held at the equator of the current president's term.
This time American voters elected a full House of Representatives (435 congressmen), one-third of the Senate (35 senators) and 36 state governors across the country.
On the eve of the election, Donald Trump threatened the White House with a “red wave” that would simply remove Democratic influence in the House of Representatives. Although the votes are not counted in all states, and two districts are up for re-election, the main outcome of the election is that no “red wave” has happened. “This is not a wave, but circles on the water” – that was how one American TV host characterized the results.
So, as of Sunday morning, November 13, neither Republicans nor Democrats had yet won a majority in the House of Representatives, which requires a minimum of 218 seats, but so far, the Republicans have only 211, with Democrats trailing with 203. As recently as Friday, the Democratic Party had only 199 seats, but in just over 24 hours they have closed the gap. Counting continues in 21 more electoral districts.
Overall, after 89% of the votes have been counted, the vote tally is as follows: Republicans, 51.5%; Democrats, 46.6%.
As for the Senate, at this point, it is known that 49 Republicans and 49 Democrats will sit in the upper chamber. Republicans need at least 51 seats for a majority, and Democrats suffice 50 – in case, when the vote in the Senate is split 50/50 for the Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris has the deciding vote. For that, Democrats have one of two states left to win, Nevada or Georgia. Nevada counts the votes, and Georgia will have a runoff, set for December.
As for the gubernatorial election, results are known in 34 of the 36 states. The score is 17/17, and the final result will be shown in the states of Alaska and Arizona, where vote counting continues. Compared to the previous balance of power, Republicans lost 1 governor's seat and Democrats gained 1 state.
“Good day for America” or “Disappointing Results?”
U.S. President Joe Biden demonstrated on Election Day that he was pleased with the Democratic Party's results, saying that the election was “a good day for democracy and, in my opinion, a good day for America.”
U.S. President Joe Biden demonstrated on Election Day that he was pleased with the Democratic Party's results. “It was a good day, I think, for democracy. And I think it was a good day for America,” he said.
“While the loss of every seat is painful, and some good Democrats didn't win last night, overall it was a strong night for Democrats, and we lost fewer House seats than any Democratic president in the midterm elections of the last 40 years,” said Biden.
At the same time, Bloomberg reported that Donald Trump, the former president and Biden's main rival in the 2020 presidential election, called the election results “somewhat disappointing.” The U.S. media has also actively quoted Trump's attacks on the Republican's new rising star, Florida Governor Ron Desantis. The press is actively fueling the theme that the Republican Party will nominate Desantis, not Trump, for the 2024 presidential election.
The American Pew Research Center (PRC) gave a list of priority issues that influence the choice of Americans a few days before the voting. According to the official website of the PRC, the survey was conducted from October 10 to 16, i.e. three weeks before voting day, and respondents were allowed to choose several priorities from the list.
So, the question of the day was the economy. 79% of respondents said that the state of the economy is the key factor on which they will base their decision for whom to vote. The proportion of such voters is much higher among Republicans (92%) than among Democrats (65%).
The next priority for American voters is the fate of democracy. Seventy percent of respondents were in favor of it. Education, cited as a priority by 64%, is in third place. Health care was named a key priority by 63%. Rounding out the top five is energy (61%).
The second top five is the level of violent crime (61%), the specificity of the election system (58%), gun control policy (57%) and abortion (56%). Rounding out the top ten is the appointment of Supreme Court justices. Yes, if the Pew Research Center poll is to be believed, this is a topic of concern to 55% of registered voters.
Winners and Losers
It must be said that even a number of figures associated with the Republican Party criticized Donald Trump for the election results. For example, political strategist Sarah Longwell, who advised the Republican Party (in particular, she launched the Financial Transparency project), criticized Donald Trump for the lower-than-expected Republican results.
“This whole thing started back during the Republican Party primaries, where Donald Trump had the opportunity to influence candidate selection so that he ended up promoting a group of really extreme candidates who became the Republican nominee and also a real poison to swing voters,” said Longwell.
According to her, the focus groups demonstrated that despite the discontent with Joe Biden's figure, Trump's emergence among Republican candidates has alienated most swing voters from the Republican Party.
CNN political columnist Chris Chillizza believes that the Democratic Party will be in the minority in the House, but overall the Democrats have managed to hold their ground and are likely to win a majority in the Senate.
“The Democrats, who were expected to suffer serious losses in the House of Representatives, seem to have held their ground, but are likely to be outnumbered. In the battle for the Senate, it's not clear until the very end who will win,” said Chillizza, characterizing the outcome of the election, which has yet to be finalized.
Chillizza also made a list of the major winners and losers in this election. The TV journalist gave the top spot among the winners to Republican Governor Ron Desantis of Florida, while he listed former President Donald Trump as the top losers.
“Ron Desantis: Florida's governor was a bright flash in this dark night for Republicans. He completely defeated former governor Charlie Crist and won a second term ... Desantis is absolutely the politician who stepped up from this election, and now the Republican Party is waiting to see what he will do next," CNN's Chris Chizza summarized.
No Change on Foreign Policy Front
Many Russian media outlets and experts claimed that the election would have a serious impact on U.S. policy. That after the Republican victory, Washington would either end or seriously reduce its support for Ukraine. But in fact this is not the case. To begin with, the new House of Representatives will not begin work until early January 2023. Until then, there is not even a theoretical possibility that Republicans will be able to influence anything. Not to mention the fact that tens of billions of dollars in weapons, equipment and ammunition are scheduled for several fiscal years ahead. And no one is going to undo the decisions that have been made.
Therefore, regardless of any Republicans, the U.S. will not give up pumping Ukraine with weapons, military equipment and ammunition.
Political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko, the head of the Minchenko Consulting firm, believes that there will be no cardinal changes in the U.S. policy on Ukraine. In his opinion, in fact, there are no special disagreements between Republicans and Democrats, all differences are not strategic, but tactical.
“The Republicans are in favor of getting every last cent to the Ukrainians. I think Barack Obama's third administration, aka Joe Biden's administration, is very lucky because the foreign political environment benefits not only traditionally Democratic sponsors, but also Republican sponsors,” said Minchenko.
Without a majority in the Senate, the Republicans won't be able to impeach Biden either but they can suck a lot of blood when they first launch impeachment proceedings and then announce every one or two weeks new investigations into the activities of both the U.S. president himself and his scandalous son Hunter Biden. The Democrats have done a similar trick with Trump. Therefore, as a result of the midterm elections in the U.S., we may see an intensification of the internal political struggle. However, in general, the U.S. foreign policy towards Russia will remain the same.