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In the U.S., the newly elected but not young and painfully familiar Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. has finally taken over the presidency. What is likely to happen not only in the U.S. but also in Russia in the coming year? Political expert Anatoly Wasserman shared his opinion on possible events in an interview with wek.ru.
Gorbachev in Line with US Democrats
“Mr. Wasserman, what do you expect from the year 2021?”
“A split in the United States is the most serious possible shock of the coming year. In the states where the Democratic Party is in power, so many crimes have been committed this year ranging from direct support for riots on the streets to the large-scale election fraud unprecedented even by U.S. standards that more or less sensible US residents have begun to discuss the possibility of dividing the country. The Democrats have announced a reform program that will guarantee them the preservation of power at the federal level for at least a couple of generations to come, but the Republicans are unlikely to accept it.
“Is it likely to lead to a civil war?”
“This is scarcely possible since the supporters of the Republican Party have more guns per person, and they know how to use them better than the Democrats. If it comes to a violent confrontation, the Republicans have a better chance. Besides, the Democrats are unlikely to use the security, defense and law enforcement agencies for the same reason that Gorbachev could not arrest the notorious Yeltsin, Kravchuk and Shushkevich (the presidents of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus respectively who signed a deal on the disintegration of the USSR in December 1991.) Let me remind you that he repeatedly cast off security service agents when they suppressed anti-Soviet demonstrations. He alleged that he had not given the order for suppressing the actions and they had acted on their own initiative. So by the end of 1991, Gorbachev understood that even if he gave the order again, the security forces would not carry it out.
“The U.S. Democrats stand behind the protest actions in the regions under their control, and forbade the security services to suppress them. So, if they now order them to suppress the riots, the security forces will think, "Okay, we'll carry out the order, and then will we be declared criminals?" After all, the officers have rightfully used force against criminals or outright mad people. And they have been declared guilty.
“In other words, is there the likelihood of a split in the country?”
“The Democratic party will be forced to agree to partition the country. Right now, the Democrats have the Pacific and Atlantic coasts on their side, and the Republicans have almost all the inland states plus the Gulf Coast in the south. So, from a geographical point of view the split will be quite clear-cut. Besides, for example, a good half of California residents is sincerely convinced that they will have a better life if they secede the other part of the country. In fact, this is not true because there is an economic pattern. If the nation splits, all parts of it suffer.
Trump was Elected for his Promises
“And could the dollar collapse?”
“Today, it is secured not by domestic U.S. resources but by those international flows where, in fact, the dollar is a payment vehicle. Therefore, the dollar might collapse only along with the current system of global division of labor. The latter is based on the concept of niche specialization of entire countries. Incidentally, this concept initially seemed useful but as a result, led to a worldwide economic disaster. In particular, it was one of the causes of the current depression, lasting since 2008.
“Yes, this system, firstly, has provided the U.S. as a single state with a significant income through the license fees for the right to manufacture U.S. products in other countries. Secondly, under this system, there is a maximum flow of goods between countries. Since the dollar is the base currency in the sphere, gained enormous value. That is, dollars are issued in quantities that allow the U.S. to pay up the lion's share of its needs. Accordingly, chances are the dollar will collapse not because of any events in the U.S. but from the “dismantling” of the global division of labor.
“This is what Trump has been trying to do.”
“This “dismantling” should have been done a long time ago. Trump was elected U.S. President for promising to do it. However, the U.S. traders benefit from its preservation. Therefore, the anti-Trump vote-rigging acquired unprecedented proportions. These traders have clustered around the Democratic Party for more than half a century, while the working class has concentrated around the Republicans.
“Still the split of the U.S. itself might not lead to drastic changes in the world division of labor because the lion's share of material production has been trickling out of the U.S. for four decades, mostly, to China. Incidentally, China is almost the only country that benefits from this system. So, the Chinese are interested in maintaining it.
(To be continued)